Here is the paper abstract:
Abstract:
We perform the first out-of-sample test of the Sell in May effect studied by Bouman and Jacobsen (American Economic Review, 2002). Surprisingly to us, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" remains good advice. Reducing equity exposure starting in May and levering it up starting in November persists a profitable market timing strategy. The economic magnitude of the effect is the same in- and out-of-sample: on average, stock returns are about 10 percentage points higher in November to April semesters than in May to October semesters.
10 percentage points out-performance with just 2 trades per year? I had to try this at home.
After about 30 minutes on a rainy afternoon with R and some friendly packages (hat tip to ggplot2, plyr, lubridate, xts) my hopes were dashed.
Nope, doesn't work in India.
If anything, it is: Buy in May and stay put till Santa Clause!
(sigh, doesn't rhyme!)
R code for those interested follows:
