Recently came across a paper which claims that the 'Sell in May and go away' strategy continues to work in many markets.
Here is the paper abstract:
Abstract:
We perform the first out-of-sample test of the Sell in May effect
studied by Bouman and Jacobsen (American Economic Review, 2002).
Surprisingly to us, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" remains good
advice. Reducing equity exposure starting in May and levering it up
starting in November persists a profitable market timing strategy. The
economic magnitude of the effect is the same in- and out-of-sample: on
average, stock returns are about 10 percentage points higher in November
to April semesters than in May to October semesters.
10 percentage points out-performance with just 2 trades per year? I had to try this at home.
After about 30 minutes on a rainy afternoon with R and some friendly packages (hat tip to ggplot2, plyr, lubridate, xts) my hopes were dashed.
Nope, doesn't work in India.
If anything, it is: Buy in May and stay put till Santa Clause!
(sigh, doesn't rhyme!)
R code for those interested follows:
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